There’s no denying it: the cannabis industry is exploding. Potheads know it, CBD-using grannies know it, even anti-legalization conservatives and prohibition fanatics are aware of the fact that the charts projecting legal cannabis growth aim nowhere but up.
However, even though this fact can be set in stone, there’s still no specific agreement as to how much the industry is bound to grow within the next few years. Different research firms have recently been releasing a series of reports estimating the possible conditions of the market in the years to come. However, the use of different research approaches, contrasting statistical models and diverse sources of data, have resulted in forecasts that amount dissimilar results.
When analyzing which causes will determine the future states of the market, there’s a vast number of angles to take into consideration. The most obvious is legalization. New politics surrounding public access to weed are the main determinant influencing legal cannabis growth.
Still, there are many other market drivers to keep in mind, like current and past demand, stock values, new product offer, scientific developments, international influences and public opinion. There are so many clubs to juggle, it’s no surprise that different analysis would output different results, for a future that remains forever uncertain.
These type of reports are a crucial tool for anyone looking to invest or manage a current investment in cannabis. However, it’s advisable not to blindly follow any forecast as a divine revelation and take every bit of info into consideration when projecting for the future.
Global revenue for the cannabis industry is estimated by Mordor Intelligence to reach $65 billion by 2023, while Grand View’s forecast is considering the whole market to reach $146.4 billion by end of 2025. These numbers are quite contrasting with Arcview’s report, that estimates the entire world spending on legal cannabis to reach only $57 billion by 2027.
Legal Cannabis Growth in the United States
Though the US market is universally expected to take up a big chunk of the world’s revenue, global projections rely on predictions of other countries’ going legal, which could widely vary from report to report.
Local projections are not as far off but, still present some inconsistencies. Statista is expecting the US cannabis market to steadily grow in sales from $16 billion by 2020, to $20 billion by 2022, and $24 billion by 2025. The yearly Marijuana Business Factbook is staying close, placing legal annual sales between $18 billion and $22 billion by 2022. Arcview’s report is running a little higher, placing annual sales at almost $18 billion by 2020 and over $23 billion by 2022, reaching Statista’s projections three years in advance.
State politics, again, play a big part in these developments, thus, an understanding of the political panorama is crucial to avoid making wild guesses. New Frontier Data is staying close to Statista in the field of probable projections, but is taking a leap forward, and considering what would happen in the entire nation were to legalize recreational use by 2025. If this were the case, more than $130 billion would be brought to the state in form tax revenue.
As far as job opportunities go, New Frontier Data is expecting the cannabis industry to create around 283.000 jobs by 2020. From Arcview’s stand, in its partnered report with BDS Analytics, this number is going to climb up to 467.000 in 2022. However, according to The Motley Fool BDS Analytics on its own estimated a total 0f 292.000 to be employed by the industry in 2021.
However important these reports may be when accounting for the future, it’s essential to stay up-to-date with new developments, in order to get a clear picture of what’s ahead.